Global PC shipments experienced a 15% year-over-year decline in the second quarter of 2023, according to Counterpoint’s PC tracker service. However, there was an 8% quarter-over-quarter growth, indicating a potential stabilization in the market. Although the YoY decline persisted from the previous quarter, the Q2 figures suggest a leveling off of the shipment downturn since Q1 2022. Notably, this is the first quarter since Q1 2022 to witness QoQ growth. These numbers provide early signs of a market stabilization, although solid growth drivers are absent at the moment.
Double-Digit Declines for Most Vendors, Except HP and Apple
Lenovo, holding the top position in shipments, maintained its solid market standing in Q2. However, the company experienced an 18% YoY decline due to soft demand in certain markets. The double-digit sequential growth, on the other hand, indicates a normalization of demand and healthier inventory levels.
HP, with a 22% market share, achieved its highest market share since Q2 2021. The company’s shipment numbers remained resilient, which can be attributed to early inventory correction and incremental Chromebook orders.
Dell reported sequential shipment growth in the quarter but experienced a double-digit YoY decline due to overall weakness in demand.
Apple witnessed high single-digit shipment growth compared to the previous year. This growth can be attributed to the relatively low figures of Q2 2022 and the impact of new product launches.
Weakening Negative Factors and Prospects for H2 2023
While the Q2 figures indicate the first QoQ rise in global PC shipments since Q1 2022, the market may still experience some turbulence in the second half of the year. Counterpoint’s Macro Index Tracker suggests that end demand has surpassed OEM shipments (sell-in), which is likely to translate into accelerating re-order demand. The back-to-school season is expected to strengthen sales numbers in H2 2023, along with potential launches of AI-enabled and Arm-based laptops. Overall, the market is gradually moving away from the lull caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and heading towards a new normal.
Anticipated Return to Pre-COVID Levels in H2 2023
The global PC market has already shown a sequential rebound from Q1 2023, and this trend is expected to continue throughout the rest of the year. However, a cautious approach is still necessary when assessing shipment performance in H2. Year-over-year declines are still anticipated in the upcoming quarters before the PC industry can regain its growth momentum.
Looking ahead, PC inventory levels are expected to reach a healthy level by the beginning of 2024 after two more quarters of inventory adjustments. Potential growth drivers include replacement demand, AI-enabled models, Chromebook renewals, and enterprise expenditure plans.